The Bull Thesis
Since copper represents one of the very best conductors of electricity and has taken on a critical role in the electrification process, the supply-demand dynamics have taken on a surreal quality.
- The electrification of the world
-We have more and more electronics in our lives every year that demand copper.
-EMs are going to want to electrify their countries as well (play catch up)
- EV : vehicles but also support for charging.
- Green Movement
- Even if we do fall into a recession, infrastructure projects are great job creation.
- Capex has been low in new projects, ones that we do have will require higher prices to develop.
Due to the metal’s durability, high conductivity, and efficiency, the numbers stack up like this:
- Conventional cars require 18-49 lbs of copper.
- Hybrid EVs require 85 lbs.
- Plug-in hybrid EVs require 132 lbs.
- Battery EVs require 183 lbs.
- A hybrid EV bus requires 196 lbs.
- Battery EV buses require 814 lbs.
“The average grade of copper ore mined has declined by 1.8% per year over the past 12 years to 0.59% in 2017. The fall is due to declining grades at some of the largest, long-life mines and the development of new low-grade mines.
The previous copper bull market took place between 2001 and 2011 and saw prices rise seven-fold: from $0.60 to $4.62 per pound. The fundamentals today are even more bullish but a number of copper miners are struggling with financing in this environment. I remember when metals had their big run-up in 2011. People were stealing air conditioners for the copper cores and catalytic converters off people’s cars and trucks. Guess we can expect a repeat of such petty criminality if/when we get another metals bull market, especially if the economy tanks and people lose their jobs.
The Bear Thesis
The only time I would want to invest in this metal is coming out of a recession. Historically, copper does poorly during recessions. It won’t be any different in the future.
(Copper price = blue line, Recessions in gray bars)
Obviously the best time to invest in copper would be at the bottom of the recession (if you are able to pick it). If not, then at some point before the end it might be good to start a position, then continue to buy in tranches in the same amount dollar-wise, resulting in increasingly more shares per tranche and cost-averaging down. Of course, everyone says you should wait for a breakout from a bottom (but, that thought is repugnant to bottom-feeders who feel like they missed out when that happens).
As far as copper demand itself, it is sure to continue to rise, as India has about $14 per capita invested in infrastructure vs. something like $150 per capita for China. The copper is used for things like local power distribution (vs. aluminum which is used in high voltage power lines) along with electric cars.
Here is a list of copper stocks and ETFs:
#COPPER STOCKS & ETFs Symbol OTC Symbol
AERIS RESOURCES $AIS.AX $ARSRF
ALDRIDGE MINERALS $AGM $AGMIF
ALPHAMIN RESOURCES CORPORATION $AFM $AFMJF
ALTIPLANO MINERALS $APN $ALTPF
AMERICAN CUMO MINING CORP $MLY $MLYCF
AMERIGO RESOURCES LTD $ARG $ARREF
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC $AAL.L $NGLOY
ANGLO PACIFIC RESOURCES PLC $APY $AGPIF
ANTOFAGASTA HOLDINGS PLC $ANTO.L $ANFGF
ARC MINERALS LTD $ARCM.L
ARENA MINERALS INCORPORATED $AN $AMRZF
ARGONAUT RESOURCES NL $ARE.AX
ASIAMET RESOURCES $ARS.L $KMGLF
ASTON BAY HOLDINGS LTD $BAY $ATBHF
ATALAYA MINING PLC $AYM $ATYM.L
ATICO MINING CORP $ATY $ATCMF
AVANCO RESOURCES $AVB.AX $AVRRF
AVRUPA MINERALS LTD $AVU$ AVPMF
AZARGA METALS CORPORATION $AZR $EUUNF
BELL COPPER CORPORATION $BCU $BCUFF
BHP BILLITON LTD $BLT.L $BHP
BLACK SEA COPPER AND GOLD CORPORATION $BLS $BLSSF
CANDENTE COPPER CORPORATION $DNT $CCOXF
CALIBRE MINING CORPORATION $CXB $CXBMF
CAMROVA RESOURCES INCORPORATED $CAV $BAJFF
CANYON COPPER CORP $CNC $CNYCF
CAPSTONE MINING CORPORATION $CS $CSFFF
CARIBOO ROSE RESOURCES $CRB $CROOF
CARUBE COPPER CORPORATION $CUC $CARCF
CASCADERO COPPER CORPORATION $CCD $CCEDF
CASSINI RESOURCES LTD $CZI.AX $CSSQF
CENTENERA MINING CORP $CT $CTMIF
CHAKANA COPPER CORP $PERU $CHKKF
CHILEAN METALS INC $CMX $CMETF
CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES $CGG $JINFF
CONSTANTINE METAL RESOURCES LTD $CEM $CNSNF
COPPER FOX METALS INC $CUU $CPFXF
COPPER MTN MNG CORPORATION $CMMC $CPPMF
COPPER NORTH MINING CORPORATION $COL $CPNVF
COPPER ONE INC $CUO $COPRF
COPPERBANK RES CORP $CBK $CPPKF
CORDOBA MINERALS CORP $CDB $CDBMF
CORNERSTONE CAPITAL RESOURCES INC $CGP $CTNXF
CORNERSTONE METALS INC $CCC $CCCCF
CORO MINING CORP $COP $CORJF
CROWN MINING CORP $CWM $CWMZF
DOUBLEVIEW CAPITAL CORP $DBV $DBLVF
ELORO RESOURCES LTD $ELO$ELRRF
EMX ROYALTY CORP $EMX $EMX
ENTRE RESOURCES LTD $ETG $EGI
ERDENE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT CORP $ERD $ERDCF
ERO COPPER CORP $ERO $ERRPF – Producer in Brazil listed on NYSE exchange too
EUROMAX RESOURCES LTD $EOX $EOXFF
EXCELSIOR MINING CORP $MIN $EXMGF
EXPLOR RESOURCES INC $EXS $EXSFF
EXXARO RESOURCES LTD $EXX.JO $EXXAY
FILO MINING CORP $FIL
FINDERS RESOURCES LTD $FND.AX
FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LTD $FM $FQVLF
FORAN MINING CORPORATION $FOM $FMCXF
FORTESCUE METAL GROUP LTD $FMG.AX $FSUMF
FORTUNE MINERALS LTD $FT $FTMDF
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC $FCX
GARIBALDI RESOURCE CORP $GGI $GGIFF
GEORGIAN MINING $GEO.L
GETTY COPPER INC $GTC GGX
GOLD CORP $GGX $GGXXF
GLENCORE XSTRATA PLC $GLEN.L $GLCNF
GOLDEN RIDGE RESOURCES LTD $GLDN $GORIF
GREAT WESTERN MINING CORP $GWMO.L
GRUPO MEXICA $GMD.MX GMXDF
HAMMER METALS LTD $HMX.AX $HMRRF
HAVILAH RESOURCES $HAV.AX
HERON RESOURCES LTD $HRR.AX $HER $HRLDF
HIGHLAND COPPER $HI $HDRSF
HUDBAY MINERALS INCORPORATED $HBM $HBM
IMPERIAL METALS CORP $III $IPMLF
INTREPID MINES LIMITED $IAU.AX $IAUFF
INTERNATIONAL MONTORO RESOURCES INC $IMT $IMTFF
IVANHOE MINES LTD $IVN $IVPAF – Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakua copper mine which started commercial production in 2021. The world’s highest-grade major copper mine is expected to produce 200,000 tonnes of copper per year in the first phase, doubled to 400,000 tpa after Phase 2.
JIANGXI COPPER COMPANY LTD $0358.HK $JIXAY
JINCHUAN GROUP 2362.HK $GDZD.F
KATANGA MINING LTD $KAT $KATFF
KAZ MINERALS PLC $KAZ.L $KZMYF
KINCORA COPPER $KCC $BZDLF
KING’S BAY RESOURCES CORP $KBG $KBGCF
KING RIVER COPPER LTD $KRC.AX
KINTAVAR EXPLORATION INC $KTR
KGHM POLSKA MIEDZ S.A. $KGHA.F $KGHPF
KOPORE METALS LTD $KMT.AX
KUTCHO COPPER CORP $KC $KCCFF – Good discovery but requires over C$483M capex.
LIBERO COPPER CORP $LBC $LBCMF – One to look into further.
LIBERTY STAR URANIUM & METALS CORP $LBSR
LORRAINE COPPER CORPORATION $LLC $LRCPF
LOS ANDES COPPER LTD $LA $LSANF
LUCKY MINERALS INC $LJ $LKMNF
LUMINA GOLD CORP $LUM $ODMEF
LUNDIN MINING CORPORATION $LUN $LUNMF
MARIMACA COPPER CORPORATION TSE: MARI – to look into further
METALS X LTD $MLX.AX $MLXEF
METAL TIGER PLC $MTR.L
MIDNIGHT SUN $MMA $MDNGF
MILLROCK RES INC $MRO $MLRKF
MINERA ALAMOS INC $MAI $VGMTF
MINOTAUR EXPLORATION LTD $MEP.AX $MURXF
MIRAMONT RESOURCES CORP $MONT $MRRMF
MITSUI & COMPANY LTD $8031.S $MITSF
MMG LIMITED $1208.HK $MMLTF
MOD RESOURCES $MOD.AX $MDRSF
MUNDORO CAPITAL INC $MUN $MUNMF
NAUTILUS MINERALS INC $NUS $NUSMF
NEVADA COPPER CORPORATION CDA $NCU $NEVDF
NEVSUN RESOURCES LTD $NSU $NSU
NEW ERA MINERALS $NEM
NGEX RESOURCES INC $NGQ $NGQRF
NICKELCREEK PLATINUM CORP $NCP $NCPCF
NICOLA MNG INC $NIM $HUSIF
NORONT RESOURCES LTD $NOT $NOSOF
NORTHERN DYNASTY MINERALS LTD $NDM $NAK
NORTHWEST COPPER CVE: NWST – Good discovery but stock price struggling due to capex required?
NORTHISLE COPPER & GOLD INC $NCX $NTCPF
ORVANA MINERALS CORP $ORV $ORVMF
OZ MINERALS LTD $OZL.AX $OZMLF
PACIFIC BOOKER MINERALS INCORPORATED $BKM $PBMLF
PANORO MINERALS $PML $POROF
PEEL MINING LTD $PEX.AX
POLARX LTD $PXX.AX
POLYMET MINING CORPORATION $POM $PLM
PRECIPITATE GOLD CORP $PRG $PREIF
PUMA EXPLORATION INC $PUMA $PUXPF
PURSUIT MINERALS LTD $PUR.AX
QUATERRA RESOURCES INC $QTA $QTRRF
RAMBLER METALS AND MINING PLC $RAB $RBMTF
RED METALS LTD $RDM.AX $RMES
REDBANK COPPER LTD $RCP.AX
REDHAWK RESOURCES INC $RDK $RHWKF
REGULUS RESOURSOURCES INC $REG $RGLSF
REX MINERALS LTD $RXM.AX
RIDGESTONE MINING INC $RMI
RIO TINTO PLC $RIO.L$RIO
ROCKCLIFF COPPER CORPORATION $RCLF$SVVZF
SALAZAR RESOURCES LTD $SRL $SRLZF
SAMA RESOURCES INC $SME $LNZCF
SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL $SFR $SFRRF
SEARCHLIGHT RESOURCES INC $SRCH
SEGO RESOURCES INC SGZ
SERENGETI RESOURCES INC $SIR $SGRNF
SIERRA METALS INC $SMT $SMTS
SILVER CITY MINERALS LTD $SCI.AX
SOLGOLD PLC $SOLG.L $SLGGF
SOUTHERN COPPER CORPORATION $SCCO
SPEARMINT RESOURCES INC $SRJ $SPMTF
STRATABOUND MINERALS CORP $SB $AGSM
ST GEORGE MINING LTD $SGQ.AX
SURGE COPPER CORP $SURG $GRJVF
TALISMAN MINING LTD $TLM.AX $TLSMF
TASCA RESOURCES $TAC
TASEKO MINES LTD $TKO $TGB
TECK RESOURCES LIMITED $TECK-B $TECK
TETHYAN RESOURCES $TETH
TOACHI MINING INC $TIM $TIMGF
TRANSATLANTIC MINING $TCO $TRRGF
TRIGON METALS INCORPORATED $TM $PNTZF
TRILOGY METALS INCORPORATED $TMQ $TMQ
TURQUOISE HILL RESOURCES LTD $TRQ$TRQ
VALE S.A. $VALE $VALE
VALOR RESOURCES LTD $VAL.AX $VOYRF
VAST RESOURCES $VAST.L
VEDANTA LTD $VEDL
VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC $VED.L $VDNRF
VR RESOURCES LTD $VRR $VRRCF
VULCAN MINERALS INC $VUL $VULMF
VVC EXPLORATION CORPORATION $VVC $VVCVF
WEATHERLY INTERNATIONAL PLC $WTI.L
WESTERN COPPER & GOLD CORPORATION $WRN $WRN
WOLFDEN RESOURCES $WLF.V $WLFFF
XANADU MINES LTD $XAM.AX $XANAF
YELLOWHEAD MINING INC $YMI $YHMGF
GLOBAL BRASS AND COPPER HOLDINGS INC $BRSS
GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS $COPX
UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND $CPER
IPATH DJ-UBS COPPER SUB TR ETN $JJC
Copper is selling off for two primary reasons:
a) fears of recession
b) fears of coming supply wave
Everyone knows about the first one.
Few know about the TRUE picture of the near-term copper supply situation. This is because the horribly misinformed financial media isn’t covering it, because they are dumb.
There are 70 major copper projects in construction now from 40 copper miners that will add +5mm metric tonnes to annual mined copper output, each and every year, by 2025. These projects are under construction now (not some pipe dream on a drawing board), and will be compete and ramped up by 2025.
Top fifty include the following:
Quebrada Blanco Phase 2
Julong (Qulong) Copper Mine
Spence Growth Option
Tominskoye (Tominskiy) GOK
Cobre Panama Ramp-Up
Tenke Fungarume Expansion(s)
Timok / Cakaru Peki’
Sarcheshmeh Expansion Ph. 3
Los Pelambres (Phase 1-2 Expansion)
Almalyk MMC /Yoshlik
Collahuasi Mill Expan.
Aktogay 2 Expansion
Las Bambas Chalcobamba Pit
Bingham Canyon Cornerstone Project
Cerro Verde Throttle Up
Salvador Expansion – Rajo Inca
El Abra ramp up
Katanga Upgrade (Completion)
Candelaria Throttle Up
Sierra Gorda SX-EX oxide line
Heilongjiang Duobaoshan Copper
Deep Gogw Deposit Access
Sudbury & Voisey Bay
Zalvadar Chlorine Leach addition
Esperanza Sur Pit
The remaining 20 are smaller projects largely based in DRC, SE Asia (or China) and various debottlenecking projects (underway) at Latin American mines whose contribution will each add +25k metric tonnes of copper, annually to the operations they relate.
This tidal wave of copper will drown it by 2023-2024.
The recent fall in prices, considers this forward, near-term supply consideration.
Please research some of the above.
The common perceptions that “no copper mines are being built” is folly, and complete misinformation spread by the financial press when copper prices were rising. Just a bunch of propaganda that was, while the truth was concealed.
More copper supply coming, and soon. Lots.